The question on the table is what goes wrong with the Latino vote if Florida
Senator Marco Rubio could be the Republican presidential nominee? As a Latino, I
am naturally interested in this question.
Being the 1st Latino with a national ticket may make Rubio a shoo-in for increased Latino support. But numerous politically-minded friends swear otherwise. Some assert that this Republican Party has turned its back on Latino voters, so Rubio's heritage won't matter. Others assert that Rubio's Cuban roots may not translate into support from Mexican-Americans (or any non-Cuban Latino for example).
I am not attempting to answer those questions. What I am looking to do is placed some parameters to get a Rubio candidacy by examining exit poll data among Latino voters.
Since 1976, GOP presidential candidates have averaged 30.2% in the Latino vote. Post-Watergate, Gerald Ford received a paltry 18%. 2004 depends on the other side in the spectrum when 44% of Latinos went for George W. Bush as to what was largely seen as a response to Karl Rove's obsession with courting the Latino vote. Thus we have the two extremes as well as a historical variety of 26%.
All other pursuits being equal (e.g. Democrats nominate a non-Latino), if Rubio's Latino heritage is at all helpful, he should receive more than 30.2% "about the natural." After all, that average was set by white non-Latinos.
Bush's 2004 performance implies that vigorous courting of Latinos takes care of for GOP candidates. Does Rubio's push with an immigration bill qualify as "vigorous?" That is really a good question. If it does then it's reasonable to believe that he will get into the 40% range among Latinos. Let's increase that his capability to communicate in Spanish (something Bush only did good enough to win praise for trying) together with novelty/solidarity factor of being the initial Latino running for that presidency. Now we view how Rubio could surpass Bush's performance.
Being the 1st Latino with a national ticket may make Rubio a shoo-in for increased Latino support. But numerous politically-minded friends swear otherwise. Some assert that this Republican Party has turned its back on Latino voters, so Rubio's heritage won't matter. Others assert that Rubio's Cuban roots may not translate into support from Mexican-Americans (or any non-Cuban Latino for example).
I am not attempting to answer those questions. What I am looking to do is placed some parameters to get a Rubio candidacy by examining exit poll data among Latino voters.
Since 1976, GOP presidential candidates have averaged 30.2% in the Latino vote. Post-Watergate, Gerald Ford received a paltry 18%. 2004 depends on the other side in the spectrum when 44% of Latinos went for George W. Bush as to what was largely seen as a response to Karl Rove's obsession with courting the Latino vote. Thus we have the two extremes as well as a historical variety of 26%.
All other pursuits being equal (e.g. Democrats nominate a non-Latino), if Rubio's Latino heritage is at all helpful, he should receive more than 30.2% "about the natural." After all, that average was set by white non-Latinos.
Bush's 2004 performance implies that vigorous courting of Latinos takes care of for GOP candidates. Does Rubio's push with an immigration bill qualify as "vigorous?" That is really a good question. If it does then it's reasonable to believe that he will get into the 40% range among Latinos. Let's increase that his capability to communicate in Spanish (something Bush only did good enough to win praise for trying) together with novelty/solidarity factor of being the initial Latino running for that presidency. Now we view how Rubio could surpass Bush's performance.
Let's have a look at how Rubio could sink below 30% from the Latino vote. The possibility how the GOP has burned its bridge to Latinos will there be. I personally don't believe that's the case. Sure, center-left Latinos, high are a lot of them, will not embrace the Republican Party, and, by extension a GOP candidate. But Rubio and the Republicans are not going after those voters; they are fishing for ideological moderates that make up at the very least 30% in the Latino electorate. new immigration law
The cultural differences between Cubans and non-Cubans could be another issue for Rubio. However, to consentrate that Mexican-Americans or Puerto Ricans (both the major nationalities embedded in the larger Latino population) would vote against Rubio because he is Cuban is a stretch for which there is no evidence.
What were left with about the negative side is really a scenario where if Rubio cannot get out of the GOP's toxic shadow (if that exists in 2016) and when non-Cubans are hostile to Rubio, his support then recedes to Romney's 27%. I find those premises hard to believe and therefore find that outcome very tough to believe.
In my book, chances very good that Rubio improves for the GOP average.
What are the stakes? The GOP candidate has won every election through which they amassed greater than 33% of the Latino vote. Rubio just has to be 4% a lot better than average. I like his chances.
Full disclosure: I like Florida Senator Marco Rubio and co-hosted a fundraiser for him during his 2010 Senate race.
John Nienstedt, Sr., President & CEO of Competitive Edge Research & Communication
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