The question shared is what happens to the Latino vote if Florida Senator
Marco Rubio could be the Republican presidential nominee? As a Latino, I am
naturally thinking about this question.
Being the first Latino over a national ticket may make Rubio a shoo-in for increased Latino support. But several politically-minded friends swear otherwise. Some assert the Republican Party has turned its back on Latino voters, so Rubio's heritage won't matter. Others assert that Rubio's Cuban roots wouldn't translate into support from Mexican-Americans (or any non-Cuban Latino for example).
I am not looking to answer those questions. What I am trying to do is defined some parameters for any Rubio candidacy by examining exit poll data among Latino voters.
Since 1976, GOP presidential candidates have averaged 30.2% with the Latino vote. Post-Watergate, Gerald Ford received a paltry 18%. 2004 will lie upon the other side in the spectrum when 44% of Latinos went for George W. Bush with what was largely considered a response to Karl Rove's obsession with courting the Latino vote. Thus we have the two extremes along with a historical array of 26%.
All other items being equal (e.g. Democrats nominate a non-Latino), if Rubio's Latino heritage are at all helpful, he should receive more than 30.2% "around the natural." After all, that average was set by white non-Latinos.
Bush's 2004 performance shows that vigorous courting of Latinos takes care of for GOP candidates. Does Rubio's push to have an immigration bill qualify as "vigorous?" That is often a good question. If it does it's reasonable to think that he are certain to get into the 40% range among Latinos. Let's help to increase that his capacity to communicate in Spanish (something Bush only did well enough to win praise for trying) as well as the novelty/solidarity factor of being the very first Latino running for the presidency. Now we view how Rubio could surpass Bush's performance.
Let's have a look at how Rubio could sink below 30% in the Latino vote. The possibility how the GOP has burned its bridge to Latinos is there. I personally do not believe that's the case. Sure, center-left Latinos, where there are a lot of them, will not embrace the Republican Party, and, by extension a GOP candidate. But Rubio and also the Republicans usually are not going after those voters; they're fishing for ideological moderates which make up a minimum of 30% in the Latino electorate.
The cultural differences between Cubans and non-Cubans could possibly be another issue for Rubio. However, to consider that Mexican-Americans or Puerto Ricans (both major nationalities a part of the larger Latino population) would vote against Rubio while he is Cuban can be a stretch that there is no incriminating evidence.
What we are left with about the negative side is a scenario where if Rubio cannot get out from the GOP's toxic shadow (if that exists in 2016) of course, if non-Cubans are hostile to Rubio, his support then recedes to Romney's 27%. I find those premises tough to believe and so find that outcome very tough to believe.
In my book, chances very good that Rubio improves about the GOP average.
What will be the stakes? The GOP candidate has won every election through which they amassed more than 33% from the Latino vote. Rubio just has to be 4% a lot better than average. I like his chances.
Full disclosure: I like Florida Senator Marco Rubio and co-hosted a fundraiser for him during his 2010 Senate race.
John Nienstedt, Sr., President & CEO of Competitive Edge Research & Communication
We're specialized in serving the nation's opinion research, voter contact, and grassroots organizing needs, focusing on public opinion surveys and analysis, political polling, civic studies, and phone-based campaign services. Since 1987, Competitive Edge has worked with clients that value developing a professional resource to deliver them with accurate survey research and campaign services to outbid you in whatever context they operate.
Being the first Latino over a national ticket may make Rubio a shoo-in for increased Latino support. But several politically-minded friends swear otherwise. Some assert the Republican Party has turned its back on Latino voters, so Rubio's heritage won't matter. Others assert that Rubio's Cuban roots wouldn't translate into support from Mexican-Americans (or any non-Cuban Latino for example).
I am not looking to answer those questions. What I am trying to do is defined some parameters for any Rubio candidacy by examining exit poll data among Latino voters.
Since 1976, GOP presidential candidates have averaged 30.2% with the Latino vote. Post-Watergate, Gerald Ford received a paltry 18%. 2004 will lie upon the other side in the spectrum when 44% of Latinos went for George W. Bush with what was largely considered a response to Karl Rove's obsession with courting the Latino vote. Thus we have the two extremes along with a historical array of 26%.
All other items being equal (e.g. Democrats nominate a non-Latino), if Rubio's Latino heritage are at all helpful, he should receive more than 30.2% "around the natural." After all, that average was set by white non-Latinos.
Bush's 2004 performance shows that vigorous courting of Latinos takes care of for GOP candidates. Does Rubio's push to have an immigration bill qualify as "vigorous?" That is often a good question. If it does it's reasonable to think that he are certain to get into the 40% range among Latinos. Let's help to increase that his capacity to communicate in Spanish (something Bush only did well enough to win praise for trying) as well as the novelty/solidarity factor of being the very first Latino running for the presidency. Now we view how Rubio could surpass Bush's performance.
Let's have a look at how Rubio could sink below 30% in the Latino vote. The possibility how the GOP has burned its bridge to Latinos is there. I personally do not believe that's the case. Sure, center-left Latinos, where there are a lot of them, will not embrace the Republican Party, and, by extension a GOP candidate. But Rubio and also the Republicans usually are not going after those voters; they're fishing for ideological moderates which make up a minimum of 30% in the Latino electorate.
The cultural differences between Cubans and non-Cubans could possibly be another issue for Rubio. However, to consider that Mexican-Americans or Puerto Ricans (both major nationalities a part of the larger Latino population) would vote against Rubio while he is Cuban can be a stretch that there is no incriminating evidence.
What we are left with about the negative side is a scenario where if Rubio cannot get out from the GOP's toxic shadow (if that exists in 2016) of course, if non-Cubans are hostile to Rubio, his support then recedes to Romney's 27%. I find those premises tough to believe and so find that outcome very tough to believe.
In my book, chances very good that Rubio improves about the GOP average.
What will be the stakes? The GOP candidate has won every election through which they amassed more than 33% from the Latino vote. Rubio just has to be 4% a lot better than average. I like his chances.
Full disclosure: I like Florida Senator Marco Rubio and co-hosted a fundraiser for him during his 2010 Senate race.
John Nienstedt, Sr., President & CEO of Competitive Edge Research & Communication
We're specialized in serving the nation's opinion research, voter contact, and grassroots organizing needs, focusing on public opinion surveys and analysis, political polling, civic studies, and phone-based campaign services. Since 1987, Competitive Edge has worked with clients that value developing a professional resource to deliver them with accurate survey research and campaign services to outbid you in whatever context they operate.
No comments:
Post a Comment